Who's the best? Part 1
As I listened to my A's slowly fall apart and blow a seven run lead, allowing the Rangers to score eight runs in the last four innings ( five of which came in the sixth inning), I began to wonder " How does one determine the strength of a division?" Much of this question arose when Ken Korack, one of the color announcers for the A's, mentioned earlier in the game that if the A's won they would be tied for the AL West Divsion lead with the Rangers, even though they would be a game under .500. For my friends out there who read this and don't know what I'm talking about. Playing .500 - ball is when a team has a win-loss record that would look something similar to this 24 wins, 24 losses; they have won 24 out of their 48 games played -- 24/48 = .500. So, back to the thought. Granted I have a bias for the A's and I would like to see them leading the division, no matter what their record is, it appals me when a team with a sub - .500 record can be leading a division almost 1/3 of the way through a season, let alone make it to the post-season (ala The Oakland U. in the 2005 Men's NCAA Tourney). I know it's a long season (162 regular season games) and there is a lot of baseball to be played, but still the question almost begs to be asked. Out of the same vein of my original question the thought "How competitive is the AL West?" I mean if the division is going to be lead by two teams that are sub-.500, can it really be considered a good division?
At almost the 1/3rd mark of the season lets take a look at the overall winning percentage by division, (total games won by teams in the division / total games played by all teams in the division) NOTE: Percentages may be slightly skewed by the fact that some divisions have more teams. The AL WEST is the smallest division in MLB with only 4 teams.
Divisional Win Percentage:
AL East: (121/231) = .523
AL Central: (117/230) = .508
AL West: (87/190) = .457
NL East: (109/231) = .471
NL Central: (139/282) = .492
NL West: (127/234) = .542
For me, and any one else who knows a little recent history (a knowledge I would say of Divisions going back at least 5 years), these numbers are interesting and post a couple more questions. First off let me give you my spin on these numbers.
Again I know this is only 1/3rd of the way through the season but these numbers are telling already. First, compare the NL East to the AL West. The NL East, even thought it has been won by Atlanta the last 14 years, it has been billed as one of (if not the) best division in baseball for it's close races at the end of every year and the quality teams that play in the division. Heck, the World Series winner twice in the last what 5-6 years is inhabiting the cellar. However with a glace at these numbers here and the NL East being only a paltry .014 percentage points better than the AL West, astonishes me. Another questions that certainly comes to mind is Do high Divsional Win Percentages actually portend a strong division?
Now take the NL Central. Here you have the division with the most consistent team over, I would say, the last three year; St. Louis. You also have the Astro's which have proven to be the "Comback Kids" and make it to the post-season with dramatic fashion by winning the Wild Card the last two year, even making it to the World Series last year. And you have Chicago who just can't seem to put two halves of a season together, but are usualy a solid team.
Again for those who don't know. The Wild Card is won by the team who has the best record in their respective League who is not leading their Division at the end of the regular season.
But again I digress. So again we have a strong division over the few years who at the moment is only .042 percentage points better than the AL West. This again leans towards the question posed in the preceeding comparison.
But then there is the NL West. Highest winning percentage in MLB is the odd ball of the NL. Being led by the Diamondbacks who haven't shown much of themselves since winning the World Series against the Yankess in 2001. Closely followed by the Dodgers who usually play well but like the Cub's , just can't seem to put it together. Then you have Colorado who since making a post-season appearance by winning the Wild Card has been a perinial house of nothingness and the Padres who haven't seen much of the post-season since losing to the Yankees in the World Series are showing some life in their new ballpark. Finally you have the winners of the Divsion the last couple year, the Giants tied for last. Now all that said, the NL West is a not a division like the NL East or Central. Granted it has seen repeat winners the last couple years but seriously that division is always up for grabs because no one really wants to sold control over that division out there, I for one consider it a 'soft division'. But it has the highest Divisional Win Percentage of MLB. Does a high Divsional Win Percentage portend a weak division?
The AL Central would certainly go light years in answers that question with a resounding YES. The Detroit Tigers currently hold a 1/2 game lead over the World Champ Chi. White Sox. Yes people, the Detriot Tigers. A team which even as recently as the 2003 season posted TRIPLE DIGIT loses. And now that honor has been bestowed up the Royals who are only a few game away from posting those same triple digit loses 4 of the last 5 seasons. Now throw in the Twins who have been a decent team over the last couple of years, but are now starting to find it hard to put together a good season. This division currently holds the thrid highest Divisional Win Percentage at the moment, and certainly can easily be considered a 'soft division'.
However the AL East goes to disprove all the AL Central just proved. Here in this division you have the second highest Divsion Win Percentage but you have the divison that rivals the NL East for the best division in baseball. Granted I feel it's slightly over-rated seeing as year in and year out for the long haul, or at least as long as I can remember, the division has been a drunken bar fight between the Yankees and the Red Sox. The others; Balitmore, Tampa Bay, and Toronto, no matter how hard they try just can't seem to crack those two at the top. However, in this division you see some wonderful talent. In my opinion one of the best pitchers in baseball, Roy Halliday, resides in pitching rotation for Toronto. This is the same team that seemed to have a buying war with the Mets during the off-season to bulk up their staff (They paid how much for B.J. Ryan?!) You also have a fairly good shorstop in Miguel Tejada in Baltimore along with a fairly good catcher in his time Javy Lopez. You have the up-and-coming MLB in Tampa Bay with BJ Upton.
So for all of this I have come to this: If we are going to go by Divisional Win Percentage we need to look back to the recent past and see how the divisions fared. At the moment there are, I believe, some good questions that have been asked by simply looking at this small amount of data and coupling that with present-day information and with recent history.
This is certainly not all I am going to write about it. Granted I am in summer school at the moment and so I may not be able to quench your hunger for more of this on a regualr basis ( that is until after June 22, then Katie bar the door ), but I certainly hope this sparks either converstaion or thought as to how one truly determines a strong divison.
At almost the 1/3rd mark of the season lets take a look at the overall winning percentage by division, (total games won by teams in the division / total games played by all teams in the division) NOTE: Percentages may be slightly skewed by the fact that some divisions have more teams. The AL WEST is the smallest division in MLB with only 4 teams.
Divisional Win Percentage:
AL East: (121/231) = .523
AL Central: (117/230) = .508
AL West: (87/190) = .457
NL East: (109/231) = .471
NL Central: (139/282) = .492
NL West: (127/234) = .542
For me, and any one else who knows a little recent history (a knowledge I would say of Divisions going back at least 5 years), these numbers are interesting and post a couple more questions. First off let me give you my spin on these numbers.
Again I know this is only 1/3rd of the way through the season but these numbers are telling already. First, compare the NL East to the AL West. The NL East, even thought it has been won by Atlanta the last 14 years, it has been billed as one of (if not the) best division in baseball for it's close races at the end of every year and the quality teams that play in the division. Heck, the World Series winner twice in the last what 5-6 years is inhabiting the cellar. However with a glace at these numbers here and the NL East being only a paltry .014 percentage points better than the AL West, astonishes me. Another questions that certainly comes to mind is Do high Divsional Win Percentages actually portend a strong division?
Now take the NL Central. Here you have the division with the most consistent team over, I would say, the last three year; St. Louis. You also have the Astro's which have proven to be the "Comback Kids" and make it to the post-season with dramatic fashion by winning the Wild Card the last two year, even making it to the World Series last year. And you have Chicago who just can't seem to put two halves of a season together, but are usualy a solid team.
Again for those who don't know. The Wild Card is won by the team who has the best record in their respective League who is not leading their Division at the end of the regular season.
But again I digress. So again we have a strong division over the few years who at the moment is only .042 percentage points better than the AL West. This again leans towards the question posed in the preceeding comparison.
But then there is the NL West. Highest winning percentage in MLB is the odd ball of the NL. Being led by the Diamondbacks who haven't shown much of themselves since winning the World Series against the Yankess in 2001. Closely followed by the Dodgers who usually play well but like the Cub's , just can't seem to put it together. Then you have Colorado who since making a post-season appearance by winning the Wild Card has been a perinial house of nothingness and the Padres who haven't seen much of the post-season since losing to the Yankees in the World Series are showing some life in their new ballpark. Finally you have the winners of the Divsion the last couple year, the Giants tied for last. Now all that said, the NL West is a not a division like the NL East or Central. Granted it has seen repeat winners the last couple years but seriously that division is always up for grabs because no one really wants to sold control over that division out there, I for one consider it a 'soft division'. But it has the highest Divisional Win Percentage of MLB. Does a high Divsional Win Percentage portend a weak division?
The AL Central would certainly go light years in answers that question with a resounding YES. The Detroit Tigers currently hold a 1/2 game lead over the World Champ Chi. White Sox. Yes people, the Detriot Tigers. A team which even as recently as the 2003 season posted TRIPLE DIGIT loses. And now that honor has been bestowed up the Royals who are only a few game away from posting those same triple digit loses 4 of the last 5 seasons. Now throw in the Twins who have been a decent team over the last couple of years, but are now starting to find it hard to put together a good season. This division currently holds the thrid highest Divisional Win Percentage at the moment, and certainly can easily be considered a 'soft division'.
However the AL East goes to disprove all the AL Central just proved. Here in this division you have the second highest Divsion Win Percentage but you have the divison that rivals the NL East for the best division in baseball. Granted I feel it's slightly over-rated seeing as year in and year out for the long haul, or at least as long as I can remember, the division has been a drunken bar fight between the Yankees and the Red Sox. The others; Balitmore, Tampa Bay, and Toronto, no matter how hard they try just can't seem to crack those two at the top. However, in this division you see some wonderful talent. In my opinion one of the best pitchers in baseball, Roy Halliday, resides in pitching rotation for Toronto. This is the same team that seemed to have a buying war with the Mets during the off-season to bulk up their staff (They paid how much for B.J. Ryan?!) You also have a fairly good shorstop in Miguel Tejada in Baltimore along with a fairly good catcher in his time Javy Lopez. You have the up-and-coming MLB in Tampa Bay with BJ Upton.
So for all of this I have come to this: If we are going to go by Divisional Win Percentage we need to look back to the recent past and see how the divisions fared. At the moment there are, I believe, some good questions that have been asked by simply looking at this small amount of data and coupling that with present-day information and with recent history.
This is certainly not all I am going to write about it. Granted I am in summer school at the moment and so I may not be able to quench your hunger for more of this on a regualr basis ( that is until after June 22, then Katie bar the door ), but I certainly hope this sparks either converstaion or thought as to how one truly determines a strong divison.
posted by The Submariner at 10:46 PM
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